‘A bonfire of climate regulations’: What Trump’s first days in office could mean for the environment

With days to go until America’s 47th president is sworn in, the world is holding its breath, waiting to see what happens first.

On climate and environmental matters, the outlook appears fairly bleak. 

Donald Trump first entered the White House in 2017 determined to break down many climate change policies installed during the Obama administration. But that was just the start. 

The 45th President slashed a lot of what he considered environmental red tape - policies in line with climate and ecological goals, but which Trump saw as detrimental to business.

Four years of the Biden administration have seen the tatters of environmental policy pieced back together. Regulations are strengthened and restored, investment is stimulated, and fossil fuel expansion is limited.

But President-elect Trump has made it clear that rolling back many of these policies will be a priority for him, some even on his first day in office. Can America cope with another flip-flop of environmental focus, and what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Trump’s energy policy is to ‘Drill, baby, drill’

“His focus on energy and the environment is a central plank of his economic thinking,” explains Professor David H Dunn, Chair in International Politics at the University of Birmingham. “As far as he's concerned, energy dominance is a panacea for a whole variety of ills.”

Energy dominance begins at home with a voter favourite often heard on the campaign trail. The incoming president has repeatedly promised to slash energy costs for the American people by 50 per cent in his first year.

How? Trump believes the key is an abundance of supply. Step one in facilitating this will be the dismantling of what he deems to be unnecessary regulation and bureaucracy, opening new opportunities for production.

The USA is already the world’s largest producer of natural gas and, since 2023, the top exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG). Exports hit record highs in 2024, with Kpler ship tracking data indicating 86.9 million tonnes were shipped out - 720,000 tonnes more than the year before, 

The Biden administration paused new approvals of LNG exports in January last year, ahead of a study into the economic and environmental impact. That report was released in December. 

"The main takeaway is that a business-as-usual approach is neither sustainable nor advisable," Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told Reuters.

Nevertheless, President Trump wants to export LNG at an unprecedented scale as a way to get the upper hand over other oil-producing nations.

Much of Trump’s bid to boost supply is based on the controversial practice of fracking. In 2023, fracking added roughly three billion barrels of crude oil to US production—about 64 per cent of the nation’s total output.

Fracking is one of the most environmentally impactful ways of extracting fossil fuels. Chemicals used can contaminate drinking water, methane and other air pollutants are released, and the process can even trigger minor earthquakes.

About 95 per cent of new wells drilled in the United States are hydraulically fractured, according to the US Energy Department.

Trump hopes to increase fracking by freeing up federal land and making it easier for companies to gain permits. 

But there are flaws in the plan; in every part of the plan, in fact.

The USA does not have the infrastructure to export LNG at the scale President Trump forecasts. Flooding the market with new fuel to drive down costs will make it less profitable for the companies he expects to invest. 

And there are serious questions over whether all the easy fracking has already been done, and the rest just isn’t worth it.

Will Trump withdraw from the Paris Agreement on day one?

President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accords on the day of his inauguration in 2017 was a flamboyant, symbolic gesture. Biden’s reversal of the withdrawal on day one of his was similarly emblematic.

The question everyone is asking now is whether President Trump will re-withdraw on 20 January when he takes power.

“I do think that President-elect Donald Trump is likely to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement again,” Professor Amelia Hadfield, Head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Surrey, tells Euronews Green. “I think he’s likely to do this more quickly this time around and create more damage in doing so.”

“It will go one of two ways,” according to Professor David Dunn. “Either he will withdraw from Paris on day one - bombastically, dramatically like he did last time - or he won’t withdraw, but will just ignore the requirements.”

More concerning to observers than whatever happens with the Paris Agreement, however, is the prospect of rapid deregulation of the oil and gas industry. 

“There are indications that he will wreak havoc on the global governance of climate change abroad,” says Professor Hadfield. 

“But at home, he will deregulate with abandon on both the hardware (fracking, drilling, offshore wind farms) and software (regulations, policies, innovation, investment).”

What will the impact be on the rest of the world?

While the epicentre of Trump’s policy changes will be in North America, the rest of the world will most certainly feel the shockwaves.

Exiting the Paris Agreement will put pressure on other nations striving to drive down CO2 emissions. The process will feel much like Sisyphus pushing his boulder up the hill when the world’s second-largest emitter is not helping out.

“This, in turn, undermines the patiently assembled global governance framework that helps drive countries forward in their climate action, and hold them to account,” says Professor Hadfield. “Moreover, it undermines the real and painstaking progress undertaken by countries the world over, including the US in the past few years.”

Dangerous, too, is President Trump’s climate scepticism. Even as Los Angeles burns, Trump would deny mankind has a global warming problem. Backed up by Elon Musk and his huge social media influence, Trump has an unprecedented platform on which to share this rhetoric. 

Joining the party is newly nominated ‘fracker in chief’ Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. At his confirmation hearing on Wednesday, he was questioned over past comments where he suggested linking wildfires to climate change was “just hype.”

At the hearing, he admitted to believing climate change was a real issue for the planet but also said that he stands by his previous comment.

Whether on climate or other issues, Trump’s controversial rhetoric seeps through into all segments of society, both at home and abroad. As he takes up the mantle of 47th president, that influence could prove disastrous for global climate action. 

“Trump has given succour to both far-right governments and climate sceptic leaders and lawmakers,” says Hadfield. “He is poised over a bonfire of vital climate regulations in the US and that may spill into other countries and regions.”

Professor Dunn flags similar concerns, stating that, “if America withdraws from Paris, then the opportunity for others to either withdraw or to cheat is huge.”

Countries struggling with their commitments, finding them too costly or unpopular, could well follow Trump into climate catastrophe. Others, keen to stay in line with the US, may be swayed to temporarily park their climate goals in a bid to woo the new president.

Trump’s policies could undermine US climate action for years to come

Given the President-elect’s stance on the environment, it’s not surprising that Professor Dunn expects him to defund, or at least underfund, the federal agencies responsible for environmental protection. The consequence of this will have far-reaching implications.

Without funding, these agencies cannot employ the specialists they need to maintain an effective operation. Expertise will be stripped out, knowledge will be lost and the US will find it very hard to build back.

“America is way behind its COP obligations already because of what Trump did last time,” says Dunn. “This time round he’s likely to do it in a way that is not only going to be damaging to those environmental targets but to the management of those targets in the future.”

As well as a potential brain drain, the energy industry will find investment harder than ever to come by, both on the renewable and the fossil-fuelled sides of the fence.

The flip-flopping of policies between consecutive Republican and Democratic governments has already made the ground shaky for investors. Flipping back to a carbon-based focus will upend projects already in the pipeline and make investors even more nervous.

“If the Democrats win next time and are likely to reverse things again, how can any company invest?” asks Professor Dunn.”Why spend money on a major infrastructure project if you're going to find that it's defunded and made illegal in four years?”

Opponents will seek legal recourse, but will it work?

Undoubtedly there will be backlash from opponents of Trump’s policies and plenty of legal challenges. The problem is, President Trump controls the law too.

At the highest level, the Supreme Court is weighted in the Republican’s favour by six to three. President Trump appointed three new justices during his previous tenure, the most by any president since Ronald Regan. 

The US Federal Courts of Appeal, one level below the Supreme Court, had 54 appointments under President Trump in four years, just one short of the number nominated under Obama in eight years. As a result, the balance in these powerful federal appeals courts has shifted from Democratic to Republican.

These judges and justices serve their roles for life. President Trump’s appointees were relatively young when taking up post - the three supreme justices, for example, were all aged 55 or under.

Analysis from the Pew Research Center showed that justices who were appointed to the court when they were 55 or younger typically stayed in the post for two decades.

“He has more power than any president has had in living memory,” comments Professor Dunn. “That is a particularly scary proposition given the fact that he has this disruptive agenda.”

How many executive orders will Trump sign on day one?

Like last time, President Trump is expected to sign a slew of executive orders on day one of his presidency. 

In 2017, he signed 24 executive orders, 22 presidential memoranda, 20 presidential proclamations and 28 bills in his first 100 days in office. This time, Axios reports he’s planning to sign more than 100 executive orders early in his term.

It’s not just energy and climate that will be on Trump’s mind, however. Issues like immigration, tariffs and pardons of Capitol rioters are also high on the agenda. But it would be a surprise if environmental issues didn’t feature on day one somewhere.

In a town hall interview in December with Fox News, Trump said he would, on his first day in office, use his authority to “close the border” and “drill, drill, drill.”

But an executive order, while rather grand and official sounding, is not a policy. Many of Trump’s promises to voters will require months, perhaps even years, of negotiation with Congress.

“An executive order is only the start of a process. Yes, it can be an indication of his intended direction. It doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen,” explains Dunn.

As an example, on day one of Obama’s presidency, he signed an executive order to close Guantanamo Bay and relocate the detainees. That was 22 January 2009. By January 2018, the detention camp was still open.

“America is still a country ruled by laws and lawyers,” notes Professor Dunn. “There will be challenges in the courts on all his environmental plans that may - and that will be the intention - delay and derail his actions.”

Delay and derailment aren’t much of a comfort, but they are at least a ray of hope for the climate.