World Bank raises Russian GDP growth projection

The World Bank (WB) has sharply raised its growth forecast for the Russian economy, projecting the country’s GDP to expand 3.2% this year. The figure is an upward revision from the institution’s previous projection of 2.9% growth. 

The WB also hiked Russia’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.6%, up from the 1.4% projected in June, according to its latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, released on Thursday. The forecast for 2026 remained unchanged at 1.1%.

“Growth remains well above potential because of buoyant consumer sentiment, higher real incomes, and substantial increases in government spending, including on defense and infrastructure,” the report stated.

Growth this year will, however, be lower than the 3.6% recorded in 2023 due to tighter monetary policy and increasingly binding constraints on production capacity and labor resources, the bank said.

In July, the WB reported in its annual national income rankings that Russia’s economic growth has defied Western sanctions. Many analysts have attributed the strong performance to Russia’s trade pivot to the East and to economic policies implemented to offset the effect of restrictions.

According to its annual national income rankings, the WB said Russia had advanced from the “upper middle” to “high” category on the strength of its economic growth. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has said it expects the Russian economy to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024.

According to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the country’s economy is growing at a faster pace than projected, with GDP expected to soar 3.9% this year. He recently cited growing investment and increasing real disposable incomes, saying “the estimates for the dynamics of the economy for this year are also higher than we initially included in our forecasts.”