Will Iran go nuclear now that Trump is in power - or can a deal be done?

Iran's nuclear activity began in the 1950s, coincidentally with American help, and within the framework of the "Atoms for Peace" programme which the US now wants to end. In 1967, Tehran installed a 5-megawatt research reactor at the University of Tehran and received 93% enriched uranium fuel from the United States.

In the 1970s, it turned to European countries to further develop its nuclear programme and signed a contract with the West German company Siemens to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a project that was completed by Russia after the 1979 revolution. With the disclosure of the Natanz and Arak facilities in 2002, the West increased the severity of its sanctions and pressure on Iran.

The nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed in July 2015, but Trump withdrew from it in May 2018, and Iran, in response, gradually reduced its "nuclear commitments" and came closer to acquiring an atomic bomb.

Tehran says its nuclear activities are "peaceful" and that the production and use of weapons of mass destruction are abhorrent in Islam. But what is forbidden by Shiite religious scholars right now can be made permissible tomorrow by a fatwa issued by a Shiite religious authority and leader.

Iran and the nuclear bomb: three scenarios

The first most likely scenario: Iran is on the verge of building a bomb but has not decided to build one. Tehran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent, which could quickly reach the 90 percent needed for a nuclear weapon. Iranian officials insist that their strategy is to create leverage for pressure in negotiations and deterrence without crossing a red line. Western intelligence sources, however, say Iran is on the “brink of going nuclear.”

If Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, it could obtain the enriched uranium needed to produce an atomic bomb within “a few days.” Iran also does not have the challenge of building a warhead and a launch platform, as ballistic missiles such as the Khorramshahr and Sejjil are capable of carrying warheads already.

The least likely scenario: Iran has built the bomb and the hidden option is the last bullet in Tehran's barrel. There is no definitive evidence of this claim from any intelligence agency, and the regime in Tehran may believe that in this case a situation worse than North Korea awaits them, and their regime will most likely be dismantled, because Iranians will not want to be like North Korean citizens.

Iran under sanctions

The Islamic Republic and Iranians have been living with sanctions for 46 years. Tehran has always found ways to survive with so-called strategic patience and on the verge of collapse, from expanding relations with China and Russia to finding ways and customers to sell its sanctioned oil. But now, high inflation, the devaluation of the rial, public discontent and crippling sanctions have put Iran in a difficult situation; the same pressure that forced Tehran to accept the JCPOA in 2015, but it’s greater this time. Tehran is struggling to breathe new life into its ailing economy and knows that in today's world it cannot live without global interaction.

Maintaining the status quo, agreement or war with Israel and the US?

Israel, which has its own nuclear weapons and is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has committed itself under the Begin Doctrine to never allow Iran or any neighbouring state to obtain nuclear weapons. This doctrine was the basis for Israel’s pre-emptive strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and its attack on Syria’s nuclear facilities in 2007. Neither the United States, nor Europe, nor even Iran’s strategic allies such as Russia want a nuclear-armed Iran. Iran’s Arab neighbours such as Saudi Arabia don’t want it either.

Iran's parallel negotiations with Europe - can it prevent war?

Iran, by supplying its Shahed drones to Russia, entered the biggest war in Europe since World War II. It was a bold decision that had no other goal than to gain the Russians’ approval and support in international equations to reduce global pressures. And the price was heavy; a more intense confrontation with the West and the European Union. The justification in Tehran was that the Europeans had always acted with America and against Iran, and they had to make a difficult choice based on their “national interests.”

Although Trump does not see much of a role for Brussels, the Europeans could play a key and influential role by mediating in reaching a new nuclear agreement by offering economic incentives to Tehran. Tension and instability in the Middle East affect Europe's security and economy.

But the European Union, under Washington's influence, has not been independent and effective in providing effective guarantees for the reduction of US sanctions. If the negotiations end in a stalemate and a war and an attack by the US and Israel on Iran, the European Union will, in the most optimistic case, be content with opposing the option of war, but will not be able to prevent it.  

 Proxies, Iran's floating vessels in the Middle East

Trump says he is willing to negotiate with Iran if Tehran “completely abandons” its nuclear programme, and that from now on, every shot the Houthis fire will be Iran’s responsibility. Therefore, any US deal with Iran will not be solely nuclear and economic. Iran’s missile capabilities and proxies will be the two main axes of negotiations and a possible agreement.

Whilst the Iranian government may make concessions in the nuclear field and, for example, reduce its uranium enrichment, it is very unlikely to stop providing Hezbollah in Lebanon with rockets that can be fired at Israel and the Houthis in Yemen with rockets that can be fired at shipping, including Western war ships, in the Red Sea.

Oil: The Blessing and Bane of Iran's Economy

But Iranian idealism, with or without the ayatollahs, cannot continue without oil exports, the mainstay of the economy. Neither pistachio exports nor Iranian luxury carpets, nor missiles and drones, can fill the vacuum of oil revenue for a government and a nation that still lives on subsidised bread and petrol. Iran, suffering from the resource curse - where a wealth of natural resources such as oil and gas don’t make a country richer - has not yet been able to move beyond a mono-product economy dependent on oil. The blessing of oil and its heavy dependence on its revenues have become Iran’s bane.

Does Iran have any choice but to make a deal with Trump?

Yes. Forgetting the "axis of resistance" and its nuclear and missile ambitions in exchange for a dynamic oil economy and the carefree living of Arab states in the Gulf. But it's an option that Tehran doesn't even consider. If asked why they will point to the example of the fate of Colonel Gaddafi of Libya.

The Iranians' only current option is negotiation and bargaining, which they are skilled at and have become accustomed to. Maintaining the status quo and avoiding maximum American pressure is their best option, but this time the Iranian government will have difficulty buying time until the end of Trump's second term. America, the superpower and "Great Satan," led by Trump, wants an agreement and in a letter to Tehran Trump has given the government two months to achieve it.

The war option is against Iran's interests. Trump's maximum pressure will worsen the economic situation, and if a war breaks out, Iran will not the win. If Iran targets American ships and bases or Arab countries, or if the Houthis close the strategic Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab, it will also face a military response from the Arabs, and Tehran knows that Russia will not heed its call.

Iran will negotiate again, as it did with JCPOA I, but not as easily as before. Tehran accepted the JCPOA in 2015, hoping for economic openness. But Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA has created great distrust in Tehran. This time, Iran may accept a more limited, phased agreement; one that does not tie its hands completely, with stronger guarantees that the US will not withdraw again, and to preserve its “peaceful” nuclear program with stricter and more extensive monitoring.