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‘Negotiate or Lose’
“Trade wars are always negative, and no one wins,” Lacalle, chief economist at Spain’s Tressis Gestion financial services company, told Sputnik. “From 100% tariffs onward, the impact is enormous and impossible to assume."
US exports account for less than 12% of the country's GDP, but industries inevitably facing severe blowback will include agriculture (grains and oilseeds), machinery and pharmaceuticals, Lacalle predicts.
Attack on Allies or Sly Pressure Strategy?
“There is [no] distinction between ‘allies’ and ‘competitors/rivals’” in Trump’s tariff approach, says Parenti, an associate professor of political economy at China Foreign Affairs University, and Italy’s Lorenzo Medici Institute.
Trump’s short-term goal is “to force everyone to negotiate,” Parenti explained. In the EU’s case, this includes demands that the bloc ramp up US energy imports to $350B a year.
Same goes for Asian allies like South Korea, where the US wants access to and cooperation in shipbuilding, the automotive sector, and energy sales.
Great Trade Wall of China
In China's case, Trump can’t simply bully Beijing into negotiations, Parenti emphasized. “China will only accept dialog and negotiation after Trump lifts this enormous pressure with tariffs now of 104%.”
Tariffs Too Late to Reverse Tectonic Trends?
“[Trump’s] strategy will have more negative repercussions for the US than the rest of the world,” the academic said. “The world’s economic geography has already changed in favor of the non-Western world,” with tariffs only demonstrating US “weakness,” he summed up.
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