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Recession on Horizon: Why Trump Could Want an Economic Downturn

The US national debt has ballooned to $36.2 trillion, and $9.2 trillion of it is set to mature or be refinanced in 2025.

While the US is trapped in a massive debt crisis, some see an economic malaise as a potential way out. Can a recession actually help?

The country's biggest debt crisis - which Trump is fully aware of - could only be tackled via “drastically lower” interest rates, which are “almost impossible” to lower without a recession, experts argue.

Namely, the downturn is followed by the Fed "stimulating" the economy and lowering interest rates.

Trump is willing to do his best “to lower rates and reduce the trade deficit. Even if it involves a recession,” pundits pointed out.

The measure may well prove ineffective because America’s debt crisis “is getting too big to solve," analysts warn.

What is recession?

In the US, a recession is defined as six months of widespread downturn in economic activity, typically characterized by a jump in unemployment and fall in incomes.

Is US Heading for it?

Americans cut their spending by 0.2% in January from December 2024, the first such decline since March 2023.

The labor market has slowed slightly, with unemployment at 4.1%. This latest data doesn’t contain all the impacts of Elon Musk’s DOGE slashing the federal workforce.

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability from 15% to 20%, noting that it sees the Trump-announced “period of transition” as “the key risk.”

A JP Morgan report put the chance of recession at 40%, up from 30% in early January, warning that US policy was "tilting away from growth.”

The S&P 500 index, which tracks 500 of the biggest companies in the US, sank to its lowest level since September 2024 in a sign of concerns about the future.