Pepe Escobar: Empire of Chaos, Reloaded

The Empire of Chaos is relentless. Lawfare, destabilizations, sanctions, kidnappings, color revolutions, false flags, annexations: 2025 will be the year of BRICS – plus BRICS partners – as choice targets under fire.

Inestimable Prof. Michael Hudson coined “chaos” as official US policy. That’s bipartisan – and it runs across all silos of the Deep State.

In the absence of long-term strategic vision, and amidst the progressive imperial expulsion from Eurasia, all that’s left for the Hegemon is to unleash chaos from West Asia to Europe and parts of Latin America – a concerted attempt to Divide and Rule BRICS and thwart their collective drive affirming sovereignty and the primacy of national interests.

US Think Tank had already floated a year and a half ago the notion of swing states. Not the parochial American electoral version, but its transposition to geopolitics.

All six candidates at the time were BRICS members (Brazil, India, South Africa), or potential BRICS members or partners (Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye).

The code for “swing states” was unmistakable: all these are targets for destabilization – as in if you do not abide by the “rules-based international order”, you’re going down.

Saudi Arabia, wary of its wealth parked in London and New York financial markets, is still cautiously hedging its bets: theoretically Riyadh is a BRICS member, but in practice not really. Turkiye has been invited as a partner (no official response yet).

And then there’s Southeast Asia powerhouse Indonesia, which has just been admitted as a full member this week – under the Brazilian BRICs presidency. Call it BRIIICS: the predominant vector of a seismic recalibration of the geopolitical tectonic plates – bound to reshape trade, finance, and governance.

BRIIICS and selected partners are configuring a formidable network – bent on rewriting the rules of the game: currently 10 full members and 8 full partners – and counting, making up 41.4% of global GDP by PPP and roughly half of the world’s population. This is what the Empire of Chaos is up against.

The ruling elites of the Empire of Chaos have nothing to offer as a counterpoint to this growing geopolitical powerhouse – complete with its own development bank (granted, that needs a lot of work); full commitment to develop and test alternative payment systems; and a sprawling transcontinental trade alliance bent on progressively sidestepping the US dollar.

Instead of working on diplomacy, dialogue and cooperation, the Empire of Chaos – and the vassalized collective West – do “offer” something to the Global Majority: their full support for an ethnic cleansing genocide, and their full support for a suit-and-tie terror gang of “moderate” head choppers taking power in a former sovereign Arab nation.

Welcome to Terror and Genocide R Us.

Further developing on their accomplishments at the summit last October in Kazan , BRICS is essentially applying a Sun Tzu strategy. Deception. No grand proclamations. And no direct threats to the Empire of Chaos, except the clear focus on getting rid of the stranglehold of the IMF and the World Bank – as in increasing trade in local currencies.

The BRICS drive, slowly but surely, is already moving other multilateral pieces in the chessboard, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to ASEAN.

Top BRICS China will be focused on a triad: the tech war against the US; increasing its share of global trade; and the recalibration of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. In several aspects, BRI is the centerpiece of China’s approach to BRICS.

Beijing’s focus encompasses markets all across the Global South, BRICS, ASEAN free trade agreements and APEC (key for trade and investment across the Asia-Pacific). APEC happens to be closely linked to BRI. President’s Xi focus on building and reinforcing a Eurasia-wide market was first conceptualized by BRI, launched in 2013.

In parallel, since 2022 Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been steadily expanding on Xi’s call for a “new security architecture in the Middle East.”

For China, that means classic Balance of Power: Iran as a very strong pillar, partnering with China in West Asia to counter the US. In 2021, China and Iran signed a crucial 25-year blueprint on economic cooperation.

Then there’s energy. Roughly 50% of China’s crude oil imports come from West Asia. China’s suppliers – on oil and gas - are highly diversified: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran (through Malaysia).

In parallel, Beijing will have no problems keeping QUAD and AUKUS as minor nuisances. NATO pivoting to Asia is a non-starter: China is fast building a complex strategy of area denial.

In Africa, the Alliance of the Sahel States will keep expanding – and France as a neo-colonial power is done. In the rest of Africa, the New Decolonizing Resistance only starts now.

Latin America though spells major trouble. The Empire of Chaos under Trump 2.0 may go Full Monroe Doctrine – on top of the delirium of annexing Canada, Greenland, the Panama canal and any further unsuspecting latitudes. Overall, it will be a rough ride for selected nodes of the “backyard” – apart from devastated neo-colony Argentina.

Europe’s collective suicide will reach a paroxysm – out of the utter corrosion of a social, industrial and cultural model.

The catalogue of ills includes full woke dementia in Brussels; no more cheap energy; accelerated deindustrialization; economies in free fall; unpayable debt – public and private; and last but not least, in NATOstan’s so-called democracy, the absolute contempt by the “leadership” of NATO-EU for the average European citizen/taxpayer when it comes to forcing severe cuts on social services to the benefit of increased weaponizing.

Trump 2.0’s quite probable trade war against the EU will only accelerate the collapse of the European economy.

Take France, already in a terrible mess. French debt now trades at Greek 2012 level spreads above German bonds. Over 50% of the 2.5 trillion Euro French government bond market is owned by global vultures and hot money. There's no Mario Draghi with an ECB bazooka to save the Euro from its new existential crisis. And Le Petit Roi is just a lame duck prisoner hated even by Paris gutter rats.

Historian, anthropologist and demographer Emmanuel Todd, author of the ground-breaking La Défaite de L’Occident (here is the first review in English ) is one of the very few French intellectuals who actually understands the new rules of the game.

In a startling interview to the privileged mouthpiece of the French haute bourgeoisie, Todd points to the absurdity of considering Trump victorious “amidst an economy in tatters”; and on top of it when “the US is losing a war, on a global scale, against Russia.”

So amidst all the hoopla about the “hyperpower of Trump as a magic individual”, Todd has come up with a stunning, crystal clear formulation: “Trump’s job will be to manage the defeat of the US against Russia.”

Well, all of us pop culture junkies know that the US will keep on “winning” – the Hollywood way; rather the World Wrestling Federation (WWF) way. What’s certain is that no matter which Trump 2.0’s missiles are launched in trade wars against Europe and Asia, the cornered, entitled elites of the Empire of Chaos will be driven to inflict tremendous harm to the Global Majority.

Victory in Syria has sent them into a drunken stupor – and the “real men go to Tehran” mindset is back with a vengeance (Iran, not by accident, is a top BRICS member).

All the conditions are met for Syria to become Libya 2.0. Yet that’s not a case of the House Always Wins – first of all because there is no “house”. In neighboring Lebanon, Hezbollah is already reorganized. The prospect remains that after regrouping and re-strategizing, Hezbollah, Ansarullah in Yemen, a new Syrian opposition and the IRGC in Iran will coalesce in a different formation and renew the real battle– against Eretz Israel.

No one knows what Salafi-jihadi in suit-and-tie Ahmad Al-Sharaa, previously Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, is actually ruling over. At various degrees, the collective West, the Persian Gulf monarchies and Israel will never trust him, and will deem him disposable. He is just a temporary useful patsy.

Al-Jolani was the ISIS* emir of Nineveh; the emir of Jabhat Al-Nusra*; and the prime emir of al-Qaeda* in the Levant. He single-handedly personifies the whole gamut of manufactured Western propaganda on “terror”. His followers are already furious that he has not instantly turned Syria into an Islamic Emirate.

If he does not transfer power in 2025 – and not in four years - to a newly elected parliament, government and president, forget about sanctions being lifted on Syria.

The Empire of Chaos – not to mention Tel Aviv – in fact want a Syria in permanent chaos; certainly not a stable, representative government that will fight against the theft of their oil, gas and wheat.

Then there’s the looming frontal clash between Eretz Israel and Turkiye’s neo-Ottomanism. The Turkish project to control Syria is wobbly at best. The Empire of Chaos will not give up the Kurds; the Turkish Foreign Ministry is already spinning the possibility of a “military operation”. In parallel, Arab money will not start flowing to rebuild Syria unless Damascus is totally beholden to the Persian Gulf monarchies.

BRICS of course is riven by serious internal contradictions, which will be ruthlessly exploited by the Empire of Chaos. Starting with Iran, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia (when the Saudis show up for meetings) struggling to reach consensus on the same table.

Add to it the domestic contradictions of a powerful anti-BRICS lobby in Brazil, even inside the Foreign Ministry, mirroring the internal Iranian dispute between diehard Axis of Resistance supporters and the Atlanticist-leaning crowd.

What matters most, at the institutional level, is that China-Russia, at the highest BRICS sphere, and also across the soft power sphere, keep emphasizing equality, harmony and focus on human development as crucial politico-economic values – totally in synch with the Global Majority.

What will not change, even under relentless Empire of Chaos pressure, is the BRICS drive to build a parallel, really democratic system of international relations. That does not imply building a BRICS counterpart to NATO; even the SCO works as a loose alliance. Following the inescapable American defeat in Ukraine, NATO sooner or later will implode – side by side with its politico-propaganda arm, the EU.

Prof. Michael Hudson, once again, has hit the nail on the (collective) head . The crux of the matter is foreign debt: “There is no way that the BRICS countries can grow and at the same time pay the foreign debts that they’ve been saddled with for the last 100 years and especially since 1945.”

These dollar bonds are held by comprador/oligarchical elites “who don’t want to hold their own currencies because the Global South countries and their oligarchies realize the debts can’t be paid.” So “BRICS countries, in order to grow, have to write down their debts” and solve the clash between vested interests and national interests.

Prof. Hudson is adamant that “the domestic parasites need to be dealt with” so BRICS are able to “erect a new international trade and finance structure.” The Empire of Chaos, of course, “will ally with the local parasites” to foment – what else - chaos, regime change and terror.

As much as the BRICS will need to come up with a concerted economic philosophy – let’s say, realistically, over the next four years or so - the geoeconomic writing is already on the wall. Since the start of the millennium, US industrial production grew by only 10%; and since 2019, by literally 0%.

In comparison, since 2000, China’s industrial production grew by close to 1000%; India’s by over 320%; and Russia’s by over 200%.

Developed NATOstan has not been growing since pre-Covid 2019. Western Europe peaked in 2007-8 – and Germany peaked in 2017. Italy is a very sorry affair: industrial production actually decreased (italics mine) by 25% since 2000.

Add to it that the Empire of Chaos, compared to Russia, is absolutely non-competitive in weapons production, and frankly risible when it comes to hypersonics and missile defense.

A feasible road map for BRICS+ and the Global Majorityto counteract the imperial “strategy” of uncontrolled chaos would be to accelerate integration on all spheres; to apply Sun Tzu to increase the blowback quotient of Trump 2.0 moves; and to force silos of the Deep State to make serial miscalculated decisions.

Such approach will have to progress in synch with a BRICS-devised Diversity is Strength strategy, where each nation and partner brings to the common table a wealth of raw materials, energy resources, manufacturing know how, logistics and last but not least, soft power: altogether, the lineaments of a new equitable order capable of dissolving uncontrolled chaos.