Peace through oil: Trump claims war in Ukraine could end if price of oil decreases

US President Donald Trump has claimed that the war in Ukraine could be brought to an end by a fall in the price of oil. 

Speaking via video link at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump said he would ask the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower the price of oil, saying it would end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine “immediately”. 

“Right now the price is high enough that that war will continue, you gotta bring down the oil price and end the war,” he added. 

OPEC consists of 12 oil-rich countries including Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, who collectively account for around 40% of the global oil supply. Their sheer heft as a bloc means they can dramatically affect the price of oil by ramping production up or down. 

Trump pledged to pressure Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, suggesting that economic measures, rather than military aid, could be the key to ending the conflict. 

The recently inaugurated president also expressed a willingness to engage directly with Russian president Vladimir Putin to end the war. While he has not offered details on how he would negotiate peace, Trump has insisted that “Ukraine is ready to make a deal”. 

The plausibility of Trump’s strategy is unclear. Russia has weathered a multitude of US and European sanctions since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began almost three years ago. Oil had been Russia's largest export to the US, but that trade was zeroed out in 2023. 

Iran, meanwhile, is both a member of OPEC and a Russian ally, and may push back against Trump’s proposed plan.

However, Trump is also proposing to order a new wave of US drilling for domestic oil and gas, which could also push down global prices and put pressure on Russia.

In his nightly address on Thursday, Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelenskyy said: “The main thing is not to slow down and to put pressure on Russia, the only entity that wants this war.”

“Energy resources and specifically oil are one of the most important keys to peace, to real security,” he said. “Europe needs to work more with America and other partners in the world, not with Russia, regarding energy resources.” 

Earlier this week, Trump also threatened to impose “high level of taxes, tariffs and sanctions” on Russia if Putin doesn’t make a deal to end the war.