Moldova, Ukraine, Switzerland: The top 10 fastest-warming countries are all in Europe

The top ten countries experiencing the highest temperature increases are all in Europe, according to the latest UN data. 

Each of these European nations, including Switzerland and Ukraine, recorded a temperature rise exceeding 2.5°C in 2023, compared to the 1951-1980 baseline.

It's not just 2023: analysing the 10-year average from 2014 to 2023 reveals that the top 15 countries experiencing the highest warming were all in Europe as well.

How fast is Europe warming compared to the rest of the world?

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) dataset on land temperature change, the global mean annual temperature change on land reached 1.8°C above the 1951–1980 baseline in 2023. 

That is the highest temperature rise ever recorded. Even more concerning, the last nine years since 2015 have been the warmest ever recorded.

Europe experienced the most significant warming, with a 2.4°C rise. That marks the seventh time in the past nine years that temperatures in the region have surpassed 2°C.

The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit was exceeded in all regions in 2023, except for Oceania, which recorded a 0.9°C increase.

Which countries recorded the highest temperature increases?

Among 198 countries and 39 territories, Svalbard and the Jan Mayen Islands in Norway were an outlier in 2023, recording a 3.6°C temperature increase - the highest in the world.

“We should not overinterpret short-term [such as annual] temperature statistics, in particular for small regions, because of the influence of internal variability,” Sebastian Sippel, professor of climate attribution at the Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, tells Euronews Green.

Moldova, Ukraine, Andorra, Switzerland, and Belarus all experienced warming exceeding 2.7°C compared to the 1951-1980 average.

In the EU, Romania and Slovenia had the highest annual temperature rise at 2.62°C.

27 out of 49 countries and territories in Europe ranked among the top 30 for the highest temperature increases. They include France (2.59°C), Spain (2.57°C), Russia (2.53°C) and Germany (2.44°C).

Warming was strongest in western and eastern Europe. Only three non-European countries made the top 30: Kazakhstan (2.58°C), Morocco (2.56°C) and Tunisia (2.4°C).

This indicates that Europe is warming at a much faster rate than most other regions globally. 

Francesco N. Tubiello, senior statistician and team leader at FAO’s Environment Statistics Unit, explains this is because Europe (which in their aggregates includes Russia) has the largest land mass at northern latitudes.

Which European countries kept cooler in 2023?

Iceland and the Faroe Islands were exceptions in Europe, experiencing the least warming in 2023, with temperature increases below 0.65°C. 

Norway, Sweden, and the UK followed as the next lowest, recording annual temperature rises between 1.2°C and 1.5°C.

“Countries that border the Atlantic Ocean typically have a smaller temperature trend. Countries that extend into northern (Arctic) regions typically show a larger temperature increase,” Sippel says.

Rebecca Emerton, climate scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), explains  this variability can be driven by numerous factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, oceanic influences, and more localised factors such as snow cover, soil moisture, and geographical characteristics.

10-year average: Why is Europe warming so fast?

As experts emphasise the importance of examining long-term trends, we calculated the 10-year average for 2014-2023, the most recent decade available. During this period, the top 15 countries and territories with the highest temperature increases are all located in Europe too.

“Europe has been warming twice as fast as the global average, becoming the fastest-warming continent on Earth,” Emerton says. 

“The Arctic is the fastest-warming region,” she adds. Copernicus’s 2023 European State of the Climate report explores the reasons why - including the proportion of land in the Arctic, and changes in atmospheric circulation that favour more frequent summer heatwaves.

The ESOTC uses the 1991-2020 baseline but does not report temperature changes at the country level.

“Northern regions are known to warm more than the global average due to Arctic amplification, and many countries in Europe lie relatively far in the North,” Sippel explains.

The Arctic is warming significantly faster than the rest of the world. This phenomenon, called Arctic amplification, is driven by sea ice loss, which enhances heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Dr Robin Lamboll, a research fellow at Imperial College London, also points out the impact of country size on temperature variations. 

“Europe has smaller countries on average than other places, and smaller countries are more likely to have experienced larger temperature swings simply because you don't average out the changes over such a large area,” Lamboll says.

Erik Kjellström, professor at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, suggests that the reduction of aerosols in the air may have contributed to Europe warming more than most other continents.

“Europe has also been clearing up its aerosol emissions (or smog). This results in less smog, but smog partially serves to block out sunlight (temporarily), and therefore results in some additional warming compared to regions with lower levels of historic smog,” Lamboll explains.

The fastest-warming countries in Europe over a decade

The 10-year average reveals Svalbard (Norway) as an extreme outlier, experiencing a staggering 3.44°C temperature increase compared to the 1951-1980 baseline. This far exceeds any other region.

Daniela Schmidt, professor in the School of Earth Science at the University of Bristol, explains that there is less warming near the equator and more towards the poles (polar amplification). “Hence more warming in Svalbard,” she says.

Eastern European and Baltic nations rank among the fastest-warming areas, with Belarus (2.29°C), Russia (2.27°C), Estonia (2.26°C), Latvia (2.24°C), and Lithuania (2.24°C) all showing significant increases.

Central and western Europe are also warming rapidly. Germany (2.14°C), Poland (2.15°C), and Switzerland (2.16°C) exhibit strong trends, while Belgium, the Netherlands, and France have all recorded average temperature rises exceeding 2°C compared to 1951-1980 levels.

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean are warming at a slower pace compared to northern and eastern Europe. They include: Italy (1.81°C), Spain (1.78°C), Portugal (1.65°C), Turkey (1.59°C), and Greece (1.29°C).

“The land has warmed more than the sea. This is because the sea can carry heat into its depth and takes a long time to warm, whereas the upper layers of the land warm very quickly,” Lamboll says.

Iceland remains the least affected among European countries, with warming staying just below 1°C. The UK (1.28°C), Isle of Man (1.18°C), Ireland (1.16°C), and the Faroe Islands (1.06°C) follow Iceland, reporting the smallest rises in average temperature.

The FAO’s data is based on Global Surface Temperature Change which is distributed by NASA-GISS.