Market ‘convinced’ Trump will win, former Soros manager says

Markets have been pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election, American billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller has said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The founder of the Duquesne Family Office investment firm and hedge fund manager specified that the trend is clearly visible in bank stocks, crypto and even in the performance of the former president’s social media company Trump Media & Technology Group.

“I would have to guess Trump is the favorite to win the election,” Druckenmiller told the news channel on Wednesday, emphasizing that the market has seemed “very convinced Trump is going to win” over the past 12 days.

Druckenmiller, who managed money for billionaire political activist and Democrat mega-donor George Soros for more than a decade, also commented on how a Trump victory would play out if the Republicans win Congress. According to him, it’s “extremely unlikely” that the Democrats will gain control of Congress, even if Kamala Harris makes it to the Oval Office.

The investor, who funded the primary campaign of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley against Trump earlier this year, also said that equities may be troubled for three to six months in the event of a so-called blue sweep, when the Democrats win the Presidency, the Senate and the House of representatives. Druckenmiller added that a red sweep scenario is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”

“Personally, I think anybody that votes for Trump is probably not going to change their ballot for a Democrat in Congress,” he added.

The money manager also expects the Fed to be far more hawkish than it would be under a Harris administration. He noted that the jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points in September was a mistake, adding that his investment firm shorted bonds, betting that the obligation price would fall, after the announcement. Druckenmiller stressed that the market needs to temper its expectations about the pace and extent of central-bank easing.