France’s government has collapsed. What happens next?

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed on Wednesday following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament).

The left-wing coalition NFP and the far-right National Rally party (RN) cast their ballots en masse against the former Brexit chief negotiator after Barnier used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push through the 2025 social security budget plan without a parliamentary vote. 

So, what’s next for France?

Michel Barnier will likely be asked to stay on as a caretaker government, just like former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal did this summer after French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly following his party's crushing defeat in the EU elections.

The caretaker government will have to expedite current affairs and cannot vote on new laws. 

It’s up to Macron to nominate a new prime minister and he has no specific deadline.

However, the choice of the new prime minister will be complex as he or she will have to survive a confidence vote from the 577 MPs in a fragmented house with no clear majority. 

It took the head of state just about two months this summer to choose a name he was confident would not automatically be shut down by MPs. New legislative elections can only be called next July. 

Who could be the next Prime minister?

A few names have been circulating as of Wednesday, including the current Minister of Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, or François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist MoDem party.

Some parties forming the left-wing NFP coalition have stuck with their initial choice of Lucie Castets, an economist and civil servant. 

Castets, whose name was first proposed this summer by the NFP and quickly shut down by Macron, said on Tuesday that she was “prepared to govern."

Macron was heavily criticised for taking on the sole role of finding a name this summer and not allowing political parties to get involved. 

“If this time, the President wants to prevent another government collapse, he'll have to allow MPs to come up with a more consensual figure,” said François-Xavier Millet, a political scientist and Professor of Public Law at the University of the French West Indies.

But for Emmanuel Rivière, an expert in public opinion and political advisor, the choice of future PM should be centred around a project rather than a specific personality. 

“We need a project and an agreement, not a personality. It’s not up to Macron to do the casting. An agreement is needed to get through the budgetary hurdle. It could be a pure technocrat with a specific mission to make sure France has a budget for 2025,” he said in a phone interview with Euronews. 

What’s next for Macron?

Although Macron’s presidential term runs until spring 2027, some parties are calling for the head of state to resign over the political chaos that has ensued following his decision to dissolve parliament.

According to Rivière, this is yet another blow to Macron whose standing has been plunging at home and abroad due to the political crisis. 

Only 22% of French people are satisfied with Macron, according to an opinion poll released in late November by Ifop.

Macron has so far responded to these demands by pledging to fulfil his role "with all my energy, to the last second".

“A resignation is possible but the timing isn't right. It would only add to the chaos and confusion, and wouldn’t change anything when it comes to how fragmented the National Assembly is,” Millet said. 

What about the budget?

If no budget is voted on by December 20, the government can use its constitutional powers to pass the budget by ordinance, Millet explained. 

In the case of the social security budget, the ordinance can be implemented after 50 days of deadlock while the national budget can be implemented after 70 days of debate.

Another law could also extend the 2024 budget to 2025, but this is only a temporary solution, explained Millet in an interview with Euronews. 

While France is not at risk of a US-style shutdown, the political instability could frighten investors. 

France is currently under pressure from the EU over its spending. The country’s deficit is estimated at 6% of its GDP when the EU’s fiscal rules dictate the debt should not go over the 3% threshold.