EU military spending surges as uncertain geopolitical future drives investment

By Alessio Dell'Anna & Mert Can Yilmaz with AP

Military spending in EU countries has seen a substantial uptick in recent years.

In 2023 alone, EU countries invested €279bn, the highest amount ever recorded by the European Defence Agency (established in 2004), and a 10% increase from 2022.

But the rise in defence spending is hardly a new trend. Its upward trajectory began in 2014 when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula.

Last year, the top spending nations were all neighbours of Russia: Poland invested 3.3% of its GDP on defence, followed by Estonia (3.0%) and Latvia (2.9%).

Urgent need to produce more weapons domestically- EDA boss

European Defence Agency chief executive Jiří Šedivý says much of the investment goes to "off-the-shelf equipment from outside the EU, highlighting the need to fortify the EU's Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB)."

"Buying together saves money, while developing assets together makes us more independent."

"Europe lags behind the United States and China in defence research and technology investment. To secure Europe’s future, we must prioritise innovation and unity."

EU military investment to reach new record in 2024

Defence spending grew in 22 of the EU's 27 member states. In 11 of them, it rose by at least 10%.

More than 80% of defence investments, or €61bn, was allocated to new defence items, namely air defence systems, combat aircraft and battle tanks.

This year, EU defence spending is expected to reach €326bn - equivalent to 1.9% of the EU’s GDP, just below the 2% guideline set by NATO for its members.

2% 'not enough' to maintain NATO deterrence

NATO's new secretary general Mark Rutte however said on Wednesday that "2% is not enough" to maintain deterrence in the long term.

“We can defend ourselves right now and nobody should try to attack us. But I want that to stay the same in 4 or 5 years,” he said after the latest NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels.

In July, US President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts endorsed the biggest shakeup since the Cold War of how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack.

Under a new top secret plan, NATO intends to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern flank within 30 days. The plans lay out which allies would respond to an attack anywhere from the Arctic and Baltic Sea region through to the Atlantic and east to the Black Sea.

But senior NATO officials admit that countries might have to spend up to 3% of GDP to execute the security blueprint successfully. Rutte also said NATO might set specific targets for member countries in order to fill military equipment gaps.