Emmanuel Macron takes stock of a nightmarish 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron will not remember the year 2024 fondly.

It was one of the toughest years of his time in office, marred by constant political and economic turmoil. After his party suffered a major drubbing in the June European elections, in which Marine Le Pen's extreme National Rally took 32% of the vote, he decided to dissolve the French parliament and call snap elections to shore up his own and other centrists' political legitimacy.

Unfortunately for Macron, while the far right fell short of its own hopes in the elections' second round, both they and parliaments' leftists ended up with more power. His centrist coalition was left weaker and more isolated, with parliament splintered into rival factions that could form no clear majority.

In an unexpected move, Macron appointed Michel Barnier, a former cabinet minister and European Union negotiator, as his prime minister. By doing so, he hoped to achieve stability without handing power over to the left — but instead, Macron's refusal to choose a prime minister from the newly powerful left-wing bloc, Nouveau Front Populaire, only created a new political impasse.

It soon became clear Macron had alienated some of his supporters while galvanising the opposition against him. By December, after three months of stalled reforms and frustrated budget negotiations, Barnier's government faced a no-confidence vote and was roundly defeated.

Barnier duly resigned, making his the shortest administration since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958. It was the first successful no-confidence vote since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

Into the unknown

Macron will remain as president until his term ends in 2027, but the problems he faces are not going away any time soon.

New parliamentary elections cannot be held before July 2025, which further narrows Macron’s options. Once a new government is formed, it will have to grapple with the uncertainty of the 2025 budget and the imperative to bring down France's growing public deficit.

The upshot is that as 2024 comes to a close, Macron is struggling with political instability and economic stress, raising doubts about his ability to handle France's increasingly divided political scene.

Observers suggest that the ongoing crisis could seriously undermine the overall stability of France's governance, but also its influence in the EU.