2 weeks ago 4

Electricity Deficit and Loss of Fees: How Halting Russian Gas Transit Will Backfire For Ukraine

The Kiev regime's decision not to extend the transit of Russian gas to Europe beyond January 1 is set to backfire on the country, despite Volodymyr Zelensky putting on a brave face.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned that his country would halt electricity exports to Ukraine if Kiev stops supplying Russian gas to Central Europe.

If Fico follows through, Ukraine will likely face more power shortages.

Dependence on electricity imports: Ukraine relies heavily on around 1.7-2.1 gigawatts (GW) of electricity imported from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.

Loss of Slovakia's imports: Slovakia alone exported 2.4 million megawatthours of electricity to Ukraine between January and November, a 152% year-on-year increase.

Uncertain compensation: It is unclear whether Poland, Hungary, and Romania could compensate for the loss if Slovakia ceases its electricity exports to Ukraine.

Increased demand and shortages: The International Energy Agency warned in September that peak demand could reach 18.5 GW this winter in Ukraine, with an estimated supply deficit of 6 GW.

Russian gas supplies to Europe - Sputnik International

Additional Impact of Halting Gas Transit

Loss of transit fees: Ukraine is set to lose $0.8-$1 billion annually in transit fees from Russian gas.

Virtual reverse system: The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine facilitated the "virtual reverse" system, where gas was bought by Kiev from European traders. Despite reduced consumption since 2022, this system was still in use.

Pipeline modifications: Halting Russian gas transits will force Ukraine to modify its pipeline system and operate it differently.

Challenges in gas distribution: A decrease in pressure in the main gas pipelines would hinder the transportation of gas produced in the Poltava and Kharkov regions to western regions, analysts assume. Conversely, delivering gas from underground storage facilities in the west to central and eastern regions will become more difficult, they warn.